NASHVILLE John Matuszak Jersey , Tenn. (AP) that offense is beloved by NFL teams (and fans). We also learned that defense, as performed by the Patriots in the Super Bowl, carries away the Lombardi Trophy.This years draft, which begins Thursday night, is stocked with defenders who can be difference-makers. Many of them play up front and will go very high in the proceedings.Heres one view of the first round, presuming no trades something extremely unlikely.1. Arizona You dont hire a new coach out of college who plays a specific system and then not give him what he considers the perfect player to run that scheme. So Kliff Kingsbury gets KYLER MURRAY, QB, OKLAHOMA2. San Francisco Pedigree means plenty with this pick, even if the Niners choice missed much of 2018 while injured. Yet another D-line early pick for San Francisco.NICK BOSA, DE, OHIO STATE3.New York Jets The Jets easily could trade out of this spot. Staying put, theyll put into their new uniforms a dynamic guy for the trenches.QUINNEN WILLIAMS, DL, ALABAMA4.Oakland With the first of three picks in the opening round as the rebuild begins in earnest, the Raiders fill the chasm created by their trading of Khalil Mack last summer.JOSH ALLEN, LB, KENTUCKY5.Tampa Bay Lots of holes here for Bruce Arians to get filled, and hes an offensive-first guy. Still, there are too many studs on the other side of the ball to pass on one of them.DEVIN WHITE, LB, LSU6.New York Giants Around the Big Apple, fans are salivating about the Giants taking Eli Mannings successor at quarterback in this spot. Sorry, New Yorkers, youll have to wait. Defense first, if that sounds familiar in this draft.MONTEZ SWEAT, LB-DE, MISSISSIPPI STATE7.Jacksonville Tom Coughlin stays in-state for a protector for his new QB, Nick Foles.JAWAAN TAYLOR, OT, FLORIDA8. Detroit Another team staying within state boundaries for its choice. Matt Patricias strength is defense and he adds to the building process with RASHAN GARY, DL, MICHIGAN9.Buffalo Did we mention this is a defense-first draft?ED OLIVER, DL, HOUSTON10. Denver Big decision time for John Elway, who loves drafting quarterbacks and is staring at one who threw for 50 TDs last year. But Elway also traded for Joe Flacco, who isnt on his last legs. So BRIAN BURNS, LB-DE, FLORIDA STATE11. Cincinnati Now the decision on that QB belongs to Cincinnati, which has seen attendance drop as the team flounders. Another in-state pick, this one a gamble and not for an immediate need.DWAYNE HASKINS, QB Howie Long Jersey , OHIO STATE12. Green Bay Replace (sort of) LB Clay Matthews or replace (sort of) WR Randall Cobb or help (sort of) TE Jimmy Graham?This is high for a tight end, but there are two worthy of first-round status.T.J. HOCKENSON, TE, IOWA13. Miami Las Vegas odds-makers see the Dolphins as the worst team in 2019. If they are right, how much does it matter which player they choose here?CLELIN FERRELL, DE, CLEMSON14. Atlanta Although help up front is a most crunching need, the Falcons see the top cornerback in this crop on the board and grab him.GREEDY WILLIAMS, CB, LSU15. Washington If he wasnt a quarterback, he wouldnt have cracked the top half of the first round or maybe gone in the entire opening round. But he is a QB, so DANIEL JONES, QB, DUKE16. Carolina Another team that is looking for a developmental passer. With several likely available later on, the Panthers grab something more pressing.JONAH WILLIAMS, OT, ALABAMA17. New York Giants (from Cleveland) CRUSHED! New York figured it could get Jones here, and considering hes been coached by the same guy who handled Eli and Peyton Manning in college, he was a perfect fit. Sorry, Big Blue.DEVIN BUSH, LB, MICHIGAN18. Minnesota If they go by need, the Vikings have their choice of blockers to fill a major void.CODY FORD, OL, OKLAHOMA19. Tennessee The Titans temptation could be taking a tight end or wideout. They also could use help on both lines. Time to boost the excitement quotient.D.K. METCALF, WR, MISSISSIPPI20. Pittsburgh An offseason of turmoil and sea change has placed added emphasis and attention on this pick. Strange to see Pittsburgh with so many holes.BYRON MURPHY, CB, WASHINGTON21. Seattle Few teams have the wise front offices and coaching staff that can retool and still be successful. That success continues with DEXTER LAWRENCE, DT, CLEMSON22. Baltimore Metcalf would have been a nice fit here, but hes in Music City. The Ravens could go defense, but the offensive line needs bolstering.ANDRE DILLARD, OL, WASHINGTON STATE23. Houston Dillard was in their sights, and the Texans blocking needs fortifying. Sticking with that approach, they get DALTON RISNER, OT, KANSAS STATE24. Oakland (from Chicago) Jon Gruden has made it clear how much he adores tight ends who can block and catch the ball. Hell get one.NOAH FANT, TE, IOWA25. Philadelphia Eagles boss Howie Roseman rubs his eyes in disbelief and takes little time to select a college champion he couldnt imagine would fall to Philly.CHRISTIAN WILKINS Lyle Alzado Jersey , DL, CLEMSON26. Indianapolis Never doubt GM Chris Ballards selections after pulling off one of the great drafts of recent years in 2018. He begins this one with DEANDRE BAKER, CB, GEORGIA27. Oakland (from Dallas) Gruden would have loved Baker in his secondary. He is tempted to stick with that position, then goes for the other backfield and a do-everything RB.JOSH JACOBS, RB, ALABAMA28. Los Angeles Chargers This comes down to if the Chargers want to wait for DT Jeffery Simmons to recover from a major knee injury, or play it safer.JEFFERY SIMMONS, DT, MISSISSIPPI STATE29. Seattle Defense is a must, as we saw in the AFC championship game. The Seahawks dealt front-line stud Frank Clark to KC for this spot.NASIR ADDERLEY, CB, DELAWARE30. Green Bay (from New Orleans) After getting help for Aaron Rodgers earlier, the Packers try to fill a hole in their secondary yet again.JUSTIN LAYNE, CB, MICHIGAN STATE31. Los Angeles Rams The most talented roster in the league adds to it up front.GARRETT BRADBURY, OL North Carolina State.32. New England Predicting anything about the Patriots on draft day is like trying to figure out when (if?) Tom Brady will retire.A.J. BROWN, WR, MISSISSIPPI This is an independent study of passing stats in the NFL and an attempt to predict Derek Carrs 2019 statistical output. Carr made progress in a few areas but finished 2018 with mostly average..." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesHorizontal - WhiteSilver And Black Pridean Oakland Raiders communityLog In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsRaidersOddsAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Raiders StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Raiders NewsYahoo Raiders Team PageYahoo Raiders ReportYahoo Raiders Depth ChartYahoo Raiders TransactionsYahoo Raiders PhotosOdds About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub d5;Using statistical precedence to predict Derek Carrs 2019 passing numbersNew,235commentsPDTShareTweetShareShareUsing statistical precedence to predict Derek Carrs 2019 passing numbersPhoto by Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesThis is an independent study of passing stats in the NFL and an attempt to predict Derek Carrs 2019 statistical output. Carr made progress in a few areas but finished 2018 with mostly average numbers. In this article we will examine models that predict a quarterbacks progression during a target time span and try to see if Carr can improve even more. First lets go over a few of the passing categories used in this study.Passer rating is calculated using a players passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Passer rating is measured on a scale from 0 to 158.3. Matt Ryan has the best single season passer rating over the past 3 years with 117.1 in 2016. Deshone Kizer has the lowest with 60.5 in 2017 of quarterbacks qualifying for this study (starting at least 8 games).Adjusted net yards per attempt is a metric that scores the yards per passing attempt while adding bonuses for touchdown passes and subtracting penalties for sacks and interceptions. Matt Ryan also has the highest single season ANY/A over the past 3 years with 9.03 in 2016. Josh Rosen has the lowest with 3.53 in 2018.Completion percentage measures the number of passes completed against attempted as a percentage. Drew Brees has the best single season completion percentage over the past 3 years with 74.4% in 2018. Josh Allen has the lowest with 52.8 also in 2018.Touchdowns scores the number of touchdowns a quarterback passes for in a season. Patrick Mahomes has the most single season touchdown passes over the past 3 years with 50 in 2018. Cody Kessler has the least with 6 in 2016.Yards measures the total number of passing yards a quarterback completes. Patrick Mahomes also owns the most single season passing yards over the past 3 seasons with 5,381 in 2018. Cody Kessler again has the least with 1,380 in 2016.QB progression researchDerek Carr entering his 6th full year as the starting quarterback for the Oakland Raiders is coming into a make or break season in his career. Luckily for him this will be Carrs first time with the luxury of playing in the same offensive system in back to back seasons.In order to predict what Carrs passing statistics will look like in 2019 I compiled a list of quarterbacks in the last 15 seasons with a similar profile to Derek Carrmostly pocket passers who started from their rookie season onward. Excluded from this list are players like Russell Wilson (dissimilar playing style) and Drew Brees (didnt play his rookie season) in order to gain the most realistic prediction of what 2019 could look like for Carr.I took two separate snapshots into these quarterbacks careers. The first measures the percentage difference in the aforementioned passing categories from year 5 to year 6. The second data set looks at the change in passing statistics for each quarterback in their second season in the same offensive scheme (at any point in their career).Many of the quarterbacks studied during this research oddly enough regressed from year 5 to year 6. This regression contributes to an average drop in 3 of the 5 statistical categories and only a negligible increase in completion percentage and yardage. The statistical drop for the quarterbacks used in this study was unexpected. When digging deeper into the history of these passers however it showed one striking theme; the quarterbacks who regressed from year 5 to year 6 usually were on another team within a few seasons. Meanwhile the few passers who improved from year 5 to year 6 went on to compete in the playoffs or win Super Bowls. It is universally assumed that this will be a make or break season for Carr, maybe there are analytics that support this assertion.The study also showed that the second season with the same offensive coordinator made a universal positive impact on passing stats across the board. All but one quarterback used in this study improved in at least three statistical categories in their second year with the same offensive coordinator. Many improved in all five areas. Some made dramatic improvements in the most valuable metrics like Passer Rating and ANY/A. This was more expected and to see the data back that assumption bodes well for Carr in 2019.PredictionsSo which group will Carr fall under? The data trends suggests Carr will avoid the 6th year slump due to being in Grudens offense for the second year. There are of course mitigating factors such as play calling, pass blocking, and receiver play that will affect Carrs production. It is not a slam dunk that Carr improves like other quarterbacks in this study but he would be an outlier if he didnt. Using the percentage change metrics in the chart above and extrapolating them onto Derek Carrs 2018 statistics there are 3 predictions that can be made.The first column shows Carrs stats in 2018. For reference Carr ranked 12th in passer rating, 16th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), 4th in completion percentage, 20th in touchdowns, and 12th in yards in the 2018 season. The low prediction is generated by applying the percent change from year 5 to 6 to Carrs 2018 stats. As stated before, the quarterbacks used in this study generally saw a drop in their statistics going in year 6 of their career. This explains why just using the year 5 to 6 model shows Carr might actually regress in 2019. These numbers would have landed Carr outside the top 20 quarterbacks in 2018.The high prediction is generated by using the percent change in a quarterbacks second year in the same offense. As pointed out previously, quarterbacks universally improved in their second year with the same offense. This model predicts a big jump across the board for Carr. This isnt a huge leap of the imagination considering almost half of the quarterbacks in this study made improvements in all 5 areas during year 2 in the same offense. These numbers (aside from touchdowns) would put Carr solidly in the MVP discussion in most seasons.The middle prediction is generated by taking the previous two models and finding their averages before applying it to Carrs 2018 stats. This is probably the safest prediction and while Carr still shows improvement in all areas, its not as dramatic as the high prediction. If Carr hits these numbers in the middle prediction, he would have been good enough to finish in the top 10 in most passing statistics in 2018.Noteserek Carrs completion percentage was good for 4th best in the NFL in 2018 (9th best in the last 3 seasons). In all my research it was rare for an NFL quarterbacks completion percentage to drop either from year 5 to year 6 or in their second season in the same offense. Its safe to assume Carr will be similarly or even more accurate in 2019.Touchdowns were down for Carr in 2018. Because the predictions are based off the 2018 statistics they similarly show middling numbers for touchdowns. This wouldnt necessarily be a bad thing. In the past 3 seasons quarterbacks there have been an equal amount of teams advancing to the playoffs with passers going over 30 touchdowns as there has been with passers throwing under that mark. 3 out of the 5 passing stats posted by Carr in 2018 were above the 3 year average study (passer rating, completion percentage, and yards). Adjusted Net Yard per Attempt (ANY/A) is the one area that Carr needs to improve the most considering it has the strongest correlation to a winning record out of the 5 passing stats. Having players like Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams should help Carr improve that stat in 2019.How might this translate to wins? Well, youll have to wait for tomorrow for that.